Reducing the cost of electrolysers and rapid adoption of onboard carbon capture technology is going to be critical if shipping is to reach its net zero carbon emissions target.
That was the message for the industry from an inspirational discussion at London International Shipping Week between renowned maritime industry economist - Dr. Martin Stopford and Christopher J. Wiernicki, ABS Chairman and CEO.
The pair held a wide-ranging discussion at the Capital Link Forum, exploring key hurdles and drivers for shipping’s green energy transition, including fuel availability, carbon capture, and the impact of the escalating costs of green fuels.
Reducing the cost of electrolyser
“The entire conversation is about what's going on in the internal combustion engine, but as you move from methanol to ammonia and LNG to green methanol, green ammonia, and synthetic LNG, the pace is going to be driven by the cost of the electrolyser,” said Christopher J. Wiernicki.
He adds, “So, the two big things that I look at are how quickly you can reduce the cost of the electrolyser and the cost of carbon capture. If you can’t reduce the cost of the electrolyser fast enough, then you're into carbon capture and you have to go from grey to blue to green.”
Green fuels
Green fuels are probably a step backward for an industry going from heavy fuel oil"
Dr. Martin Stopford said, “Green fuels are probably a step backward for an industry going from heavy fuel oil and the next bit of bad news is they're going to cost you $2,000 to $3,000 a ton. This changes the whole economics of the business."
He adds, "And the final bit of bad news is that you won’t be able to get any of these fuels anyway because there are so many heavyweights already in the queue."
Need for innovation
Dr. Martin Stopford continues, "For example, we feed the world with ammonia, which increases the yields 4, 5, or 6 times and there is nothing else if you take that away. Innovation is about making things work that don't work and we will find the only way you could bridge that enormous gap between running down the carbon the way the IMO wants us to is that you build or retrofit a lot of ships with carbon capture.”
Energy efficiency, carbon capture
Christopher J. Wiernicki replied, “Size, a strong balance sheet, great charter relationships, and an understanding of the impact of technology on your commercial business is going to make all the difference in the world going forward."
He adds, "You're going to have to take an eagle-eye look at energy efficiency and onboard carbon capture because you can't build enough ships to magically change the global fleet. So, retrofits are going to be important."
Layering of technologies
Christopher J. Wiernicki continues, "Owners will need to take advantage of the layering of technologies. They are going to have to figure out what makes sense relative to the risk profile of the business."
He concludes, "Commercial decisions in our industry are going to be more than just the historical reading of supply and demand. It's going to be reading the technology to take a calculated risk with partners and charterers to move this forward.”
